A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
